Risk factors for admission at three urban emergency departments in England

An investigation into factors associated with unscheduled admission following presentation to emergency departments (EDs) at three hospitals in England | BMJ Open

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Design and setting: Cross-sectional analysis of attendance data for patients from three urban EDs in England: a large teaching hospital and major trauma centre (site 1) and two district general hospitals (sites 2 and 3). Variables included patient age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation score, arrival date and time, arrival by ambulance or otherwise, a variety of ED workload measures, inpatient bed occupancy rates and admission outcome. Coding inconsistencies in routine ED data used for this study meant that diagnosis could not be included.

Results: Outcome data were available for 19 721 attendances (>99%), of whom 6263 (32%) were admitted to hospital. Site 1 was set as the baseline site for analysis of admission risk. Risk of admission was significantly greater at sites 2 and 3 (adjusted OR (AOR) relative to site 1 for site 2 was 1.89, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.05, p<0.001) and for patients of black or black British ethnicity (AOR 1.29, 1.16 to 1.44, p<0.001). Deprivation was strongly associated with admission. Analysis of departmental and hospital-wide workload pressures gave conflicting results, but proximity to the “4-hour target” (a rule that limits patient stays in EDs to 4 hours in the National Health Service in England) emerged as a strong driver for admission in this analysis (AOR 3.61, 95% CI 3.30 to 3.95, p<0.001).

Conclusion: This study found statistically significant variations in odds of admission between hospital sites when adjusting for various patient demographic and presentation factors, suggesting important variations in ED-level and clinician-level behaviour relating to admission decisions. The 4-hour target is a strong driver for emergency admission.

Full reference: Ismail, S.A. et al. (2017) Risk factors for admission at three urban emergency departments in England: a cross-sectional analysis of attendances over 1 month. BMJ Open. 7:e011547

The role of nurses’ clinical impression in the first assessment of children at the emergency department

This study explores the diagnostic value and determinants of nurses’ clinical impression for the recognition of children with a serious illness on presentation to the emergency department (ED) | Archives of Disease in Childhood

Main outcome measures: Diagnostic accuracy of nurses’ clinical impression for the prediction of serious illness, defined by intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital admission. Determinants of nurses’ impression that a child appeared ill.

Results: Nurses considered a total of 1279 (20.0%) children appearing ill. Sensitivity of nurses’ clinical impression for the recognition of patients requiring ICU admission was 0.70 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.76) and specificity was 0.81 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.82). Sensitivity for hospital admission was 0.48 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.51) and specificity was 0.88 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.88). When adjusted for age, gender, triage urgency and abnormal vital signs, nurses’ impression remained significantly associated with ICU (OR 4.54; 95% CI 3.09 to 6.66) and hospital admission (OR 4.00; 95% CI 3.40 to 4.69). Ill appearance was positively associated with triage urgency, fever and abnormal vital signs and negatively with self-referral and presentation outside of office hours.

Conclusion: The overall clinical impression of experienced nurses at the ED is on its own, not an accurate predictor of serious illness in children, but provides additional information above some well-established and objective predictors of illness severity.

Full reference: Zachariasse, J.M. et al. (2017)  The role of nurses’ clinical impression in the first assessment of children at the emergency department. Archives of Disease in Childhood. Published Online First: 10 June 2017

Why do patients seek primary medical care in emergency departments?

MacKichan, F. (2017) BMJ Open. 7:e013816

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Objectives: To describe how processes of primary care access influence decisions to seek help at the emergency department (ED).

Conclusions: This study provides important insight into the implicit role of primary care access on the use of ED. Discourses around ‘inappropriate’ patient demand neglect to recognise that decisions about where to seek urgent care are based on experiential knowledge. Simply speeding up access to primary care or increasing its volume is unlikely to alleviate rising ED use. Systems for accessing care need to be transparent, perceptibly fair and appropriate to the needs of diverse patient groups.

Read the full article here

The Impact of Walk-in Centres and GP Co-operatives on Emergency Department Presentations

Crawford, J. et al. International Emergency Nursing | Published online: 18 April 2017

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Image source: Kake – Flickr // CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

Highlights:

  • Workload and resource pressures on EDs require the development of applicable minor illness and injury pathways.
  • Walk-in-centres have the potential to reduce ED workloads but more work is required to substantiate this pathway.
  • GP cooperatives can reduce ED workloads but further evidence is required to be confident of the efficacy of this care pathway.

Read the full abstract here

Environmental factors and emergency hospital admissions due to Alzheimer’s disease

Culqui, D.R. et al. (2017) Science of The Total Environment. 592(15) pp. 451–457

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Highlights:

  • Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia among older adults
  • Air pollutants may be risk factors regarding the decompensation of AD
  • PM2.5 concentrations are associated with the development and the exacerbation of AD
  • Heat waves can exacerbate Alzheimer’s hospital admissions
  • More epidemiologic studies will be needed to confirm the relation between AD and environmental factors

Read the full abstract here

Winter Insight: NHS 111

An analysis of how NHS 111 has fared, especially over the winter period | Nuffield Trust

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Image source: Nuffield Trust

Key Points:

  • The proportion of callers being dispatched from NHS 111 to emergency services over the last three years has risen. There has been a particular rise in the share of people who are passed to ambulances.
  • There is great variability between different areas in how likely NHS 111 is to send people to A&E or the ambulance service. This might suggest that some areas are too likely, or not likely enough, to send people to emergency services. NHS 111 is also more likely to dispatch an ambulance than to simply send people to A&E – which is the reverse of the usual pattern of NHS use. This lends credence to claims that the service is too risk-averse in some cases.
  • However, contrary to criticism that it adds to the pressure on A&E, the service overall seems to steer people away from emergency services. Patient surveys suggest as many as 8 million more people would have gone to A&E and the ambulance service over the last three years without 111. The call line also soaks up extra demand during winter, when it becomes less likely to refer people to urgent services.
  • NHS 111 still answers the vast majority of calls within a minute, and few people hang up after having to hold for more than 30 seconds. However, it has not met its target of answering 95 per cent of calls within 60 seconds for two-and-a-half years, and it seems prone to serious under-performance when calls spike after Christmas and the New Year.

Read the full report here

An ED paradox: patients who arrive by ambulance and then leave without consulting an ED provider

Doupe, M.B. et al. (2017) Emergency Medicine Journal. 34:151-156.

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Background: Scientists have called for strategies to identify ED patients with unmet needs. We identify the unique profile of ED patients who arrive by ambulance and subsequently leave without consulting a provider (ie, a paradoxical visit, PV).

Conclusions: PV patients have needs that do not align with the acute model of ED care. These patients may benefit from a more integrated care approach likely involving allied health professionals.

Read the full article here